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On 7/2/2021 at 2:55 AM, campbeam said:

Definitely wothwhile watching the video. I had a few laughs.

Following video is more about what is going on in THE CHASM phase of the Technology Adoption Lifecycle. It is about bridging the gap between the EARLY MARKET and the MAINSTREAM MARKET.

 

Very interesting facts this guy presents. I cannot find any argument against any of his key points. My only concern with these Chinese made cars is, will we be further enabling the criminal CCP. After all they gave us the gift of Covid and now look at how we have to live not to mention the economic ruin they created globally.

I would buy an electric car into the future if it comes from a morally responsible company-country.

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2 hours ago, Tony Prodigy said:

I would buy an electric car into the future if it comes from a morally responsible company-country.

I have already eliminated VW Group, FCA Group, GM and Ford.

Got a watchful eye upon planned EV imports into the Australian market with various concerns about quality and warranty support. Time will tell.

I am thinking that this is how Toyota will continue to differentiate themselves and retain market share. 

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I found the following YouTube video interesting more so the commentary. From viewing other YouTube videos, I am aware of a number of EV Canadian companies both in development of EV components and manufacture. I thought that they would be viewing the larger US market. In the commentary, mention was made of Govt incentive to purchase an EV. Just thinking that this is going to support their local EV industry and not just imported vehicles.

Being synical, I expect that the Australian Govt [current or future] will make an announcement banning new ICE vehicle sales from 2040 or 2035 for the very reasons mentioned by the video's presenter.

 

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Haha, they keep moving the goalposts. Interesting times ahead for sure, but I wonder what is going to become of the existing petrol and diesel cars that will still be on the road ? I bet the Govt with all its infinite wisdom, will probably tax them all to death. 

Another interesting question is, Once they get ICE cars off the road, does that mean petrol won't be available for sale anymore ? And if so, I wonder how much it will cost. There's so much complexity to deal with going forward with all this EV change.

Does this also mean that ICE cars will become worthless once EV takes over ? 

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19 minutes ago, Tony Prodigy said:

Haha, they keep moving the goalposts. Interesting times ahead for sure, but I wonder what is going to become of the existing petrol and diesel cars that will still be on the road ? I bet the Govt with all its infinite wisdom, will probably tax them all to death. 

Another interesting question is, Once they get ICE cars off the road, does that mean petrol won't be available for sale anymore ? And if so, I wonder how much it will cost. There's so much complexity to deal with going forward with all this EV change.

Does this also mean that ICE cars will become worthless once EV takes over ? 

It has only been recently that I have started to really consider that EV as a disruptive technology that will actually replace ICE cars in the mass vehicle market. I have also previously disregarded autonomous driving but not now because I have a vested interest that I may require it in my geriatric years.

It pays to think ahead and plan for what suits the circumstances. We have already been forewarned about a possible road useage tax aimed at EV but I am sure will be applied to all vehicles. As for the fuel excise tax, it could easily be re-politicised as a fuel pollutant tax. 

When EV start to become more common, mechanics, crash repairers etc are going to have to evolve their skill sets or specialise.

I think we will see petrol stations to transform with EV charging spaces similar to what I have seen in YouTube videos from Great Britain. Perhaps in the future we will see a number of petrol stations to fully evolve or be replaced by a fast food and EV charging space combo.

I am certainly thinking that non-hybrid ICE cars will become worthless once EV takes over the mass market. By then, driving an ICE car [performance wise] would be the equivalent of riding a horse and not highly desired as a daily experience. At that time, there will also be a plentiful supply of used earlier generation EVs. There will also be posts on this Forum about battery and electric motor swaps.

I am thinking that 2022 can potentially be the early days for mass market adoption in Australia in the major capital cities i.e. Sydney and Melbourne. 2027 could be a defining moment for the new 2022 ICE car buyer who wants to sell their car for cash to go buy an EV via an online order [cash only-no trade in].

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Reducing costs is the key to the transition from ICE cars to EV. Interesting to see how quickly and frequently Tesla is revising a model reducing costs and achieving efficiency gains.

Interesting point that Tesla is open to licensing its software and supply powertrains and batteries.

Toyota will be using the BYD platform for its first EV, the BZ4X. Other OEM car manufacturers are entering into arrangements with other battery suppliers. 

 

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Shame on Tesla for cutting corners on an already stupidly very expensive car which to me is an unknown quantity as far as reliability is concerned. Personally I wouldn't consider one, even if dirt cheap.

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17 hours ago, ZZT86 said:

Shame on Tesla for cutting corners on an already stupidly very expensive car which to me is an unknown quantity as far as reliability is concerned. Personally I wouldn't consider one, even if dirt cheap.

It is not about cutting corners but having better engineering to reduce production costs. Sandy Munro has done YouTube videos on the teardown of various EVs so now able to do a comparison between Tesla, VW and Ford. Tesla's are supposedly being engineered for a planned longevity of 1 Million miles. Looks like they are constantly upgrading their product and releasing new versions just like a software company than a traditional vehicle manufacturer. They are also attracting the best engineering talent. No wonder that they are considered to be 5 years in advance of their competition.

I have greater concerns about the quality of other EV's currently available e.g. MG and soon to be released e.g. Hyundai/Kia. Time will expose any shortcomings.

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14 hours ago, campbeam said:

Sandy Munro has done YouTube videos on the teardown of various EVs so now able to do a comparison between Tesla, VW and Ford. Tesla's are supposedly being engineered for a planned longevity of 1 Million miles.

Sandy Munro knows what he's talking about. I was staggered to find out that there are several owners of Tesla cars that have reached 1 million miles and that to me is amazing considering where we are at in terms of tech.

Innovation is constantly evolving and Tesla does have the edge as it's been in the game the longest and are quite aggressive in that dept. I can only imagine where we'd be in another 10 years because the "revision" process as Sandy described, is being done at the "speed of thought" That's scary in itself.

I understand the need to cut costs and redesign parts to help bring the overall production cost down, but at the same time, I wouldn't want to be driving a tin box that has no substance. I enjoy having a car with the niceties. Luxury trim etc, premium carpet etc.. If they make it look and feel cheap then the whole appeal will be compromised for me. It has to equal or exceed what we have been used to to date.

 

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They are overpriced for what they are, imo. Tesla are only able to charge so much for their cars because of their battery tech, not sure it's worth it tbh. And Tesla cars aren't reliable, no where near Toyota/Lexus standards https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-what-car-reliability-survey-brands/n20069

https://www.caradvice.com.au/927693/tesla-jaguar-alfa-romeo-and-land-rover-are-the-least-reliable-brands-j-d-power-report/

If the Aurion had an electric motor, I would imagine it would also cover huge miles. Then again it already does 🙂

Edited by ZZT86
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8 hours ago, ZZT86 said:

They are overpriced for what they are

I knew about Moore's Law but only recently about Wright's Law. Electric Vehicles are relatively expensive but should come down in price as production volumes rise. https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin/

Following video meets my expectations of EV pricing to drive sales away from ICE vehicles. 

    

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I had to go looking spefically for this YouTube video after my 1st viewing. I found it to be quite insightful as to what is currently happening in the China EV market. It also explains why the CCP is directing that there to be a consolidation of startups to transition into profitable businesses independent of the current level of govt. incentives. To my mind, the emergent winners are those businesses with battery supply capability i.e. Tesla, BYD and CATL.

Immediate outlook for VW and other OEM vehicle manufacturers is not great in the China market. Also understandable about not wanting to have too much exposure with unprofitable sales.  

 

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I viewed this YouTube video earlier and got a bit annoyed at the presenter's call to boycott Toyota. Personally, I do not reward those who lie and deceive. However, I am aware to look for vested interests so no surprise that Big Business is going to attempt to tilt the playing field in their favour. 

Toyota is the recognised leader in hybrid technology. It makes sense to me for people to continue to buy hybrid or plug in hybrid vehicles until EVs have been adopted by the mass market.

BYD with their Blade battery technology is going to hasten the adoption rate with affordable EVs in 2022. Toyota will also be using the BYD platform in their EV. 

 

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10 hours ago, campbeam said:

I viewed this YouTube video earlier and got a bit annoyed at the presenter's call to boycott Toyota. Personally, I do not reward those who lie and deceive. However, I am aware to look for vested interests so no surprise that Big Business is going to attempt to tilt the playing field in their favour. 

I agree Ash. Mr Electric Viking over stepped by calling for the boycott. Just because a company doesn't bend to his or other's ideals doesn't mean we have to play dirty. This guy seems to be bordering on the fanatical, even though I understand his argument, I think we let the cats among the pigeons and watch it play out. Definitely interesting times ahead though.

I wonder if all this talk about about having cheap electricity will actually filter down to households and that someday we can enjoy cheap electricity like we once did when it was dirty coal fired. This massive energy shift has to be good for other things not only to get ICE cars off the road, you know ?

10 hours ago, campbeam said:

BYD with their Blade battery technology is going to hasten the adoption rate with affordable EVs in 2022. Toyota will also be using the BYD platform in their EV. 

I think this will save Toyota from falling behind and losing market share. The fact that they continue to waste money in the wrong technology means it is lagging behind somewhat, both in terms of time and financially and they need to partner with others to get them started. I think at some point Toyota will go it alone once it's fully established itself and the market take up is there.

 

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2 hours ago, Tony Prodigy said:

I agree Ash. Mr Electric Viking over stepped by calling for the boycott. Just because a company doesn't bend to his or other's ideals doesn't mean we have to play dirty. This guy seems to be bordering on the fanatical, even though I understand his argument, I think we let the cats among the pigeons and watch it play out. Definitely interesting times ahead though.

I wonder if all this talk about about having cheap electricity will actually filter down to households and that someday we can enjoy cheap electricity like we once did when it was dirty coal fired. This massive energy shift has to be good for other things not only to get ICE cars off the road, you know ?

I think this will save Toyota from falling behind and losing market share. The fact that they continue to waste money in the wrong technology means it is lagging behind somewhat, both in terms of time and financially and they need to partner with others to get them started. I think at some point Toyota will go it alone once it's fully established itself and the market take up is there.

 

Good comments as per usual. You have just got me thinking a little bit further down the track.

The massive energy shift to Solar, Wind and Battery [SWB] should potentially result in a bountiful supply of electricity. It is going to take massive ongoing investment based upon expected returns. More likely to be greater energy savings for big users of electricity. This could make hydrogen generation a more viable proposition. Maybe then, hydrogen fuel cells in cars will become a real alternative to hybrid and full electric vehicles. 

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16 minutes ago, campbeam said:

The massive energy shift to Solar, Wind and Battery [SWB] should potentially result in a bountiful supply of electricity. It is going to take massive ongoing investment based upon expected returns. More likely to be greater energy savings for big users of electricity. This could make hydrogen generation a more viable proposition. Maybe then, hydrogen fuel cells in cars will become a real alternative to hybrid and full electric vehicles. 

James May seems to be thinking along the lines of Hydrogen. He's an avid Hydrogen devotee at the minute. We'll never really know for sure until some time I guess. I'm still on the fence.

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Looks like there is going to be enough planned battery production to meet future production requirements for EVs. Further writing on the wall for EV adoption to meet mass market demand particularly in Europe by 2025. It will be interesting to see what future battery techology advancements make the transition into production. 

As a late adopter of new technology, I am planning upon waiting until 2030/31 before seriously considering the viability of transitioning to a EV that will support a fully autonomous driving option. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I find this latest YouTube video interesting and somewhat unexpected. I was thinking that the US Govt would be trying to shut out Chinese EVs from the American market for a number of political and economic reasons.

What is surprising is this relatively unknown Chinese brand being the supplier for this US EV import company. It will be interesting to see how well this vehicle does in the demanding US market, in particular the overall build quality. This is because I am thinking of a recent review in Australia of a Haval SUV and overall rating of 5/10 because of build quality and driveability. 

 

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It's going to be really interesting to see how the American public and the world in general will react to the importation of Chinese EV cars after what the CCP have done crippling world economies with their Covid virus. There may be political and economic backlash as you mentioned Ash. 

I'm starting to think that the electric viking also has a vested interest in EVs as he is dead set on the annihilation of ICE vehicles. 

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Personally I have never considered buying a Korean car since their onslaught into the motoring domain because of their lack of engineering prowess, far less a Chinese car. That will probably never happen in my lifetime. Just my 2c worth.

Edited by ZZT86
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9 hours ago, ZZT86 said:

Personally I have never considered buying a Korean car since their onslaught into the motoring domain

My honest opinion is that I've never ever considered anything other than a Toyota for everyday use vehicles. Even if I was given a non Toyota car for free, I'd sell it then buy a Toyota :laugh:

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My mind is somewhat open but my wallet is firmly closed. Certainly hoping in my lifetime, moreso in the coming geriatic years, that I will be sitting in a fully self driving electric vehicle.

Tesla is 5-6 years in advance for other electric vehicle manufacturers. I suspect that this is a main reason why CCP has enabled Tesla to set up a factory in China. Interesting how the EV manufacturers in China have progressed since Tesla's arrival. Potentially, Chinese EV manufacturers could dominate the world EV market but I have doubts that this will actually happen.    

Interesting to see the actual product results from the various reported joint ventures involving Toyota. 

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I have just viewed this YouTube video about Chinese EV manufacturer NIO. Similar to Tesla, it has had its brinkmanship event and is recovering strongly. I found it interesting because it can be representative of the journey of many EV start ups. Battery fires can damage a brand's reputation so fortunately the cause was identified and corrected. 

I am more appreciating the benefits to be gained from Toyota's apparent reluctance to enter into the EV market. Certainly expecting that Toyota will benefit from other EV manufacturer's mistakes or mis-steps and produce a reliable EV suitable for mass market adoption. 

The market will eventually determine which EVs prosper and survive. 

 

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This is a recent YouTube video from Sandy Munro who is a recognised Auto Industry guru. Love the way how he confidently expresses himself and his previous predictions are on track.

I went back and reviewed the graph at the 0:53 mark to confirm his prediction of 49% ICE is for the USA market only.

There is no graph against Australia because we no longer have an Auto Manufacturing/Assembly Industry. It will be interesting to see which of the 4 graphs will correspond to actual sales in Australia. Personally, I think that the China Graph is going to be more relevant instead of the Japan/Korea Graph.

 

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I viewed a YouTube video posted a few months ago that explained very well why Toyota has been hesitant about Electric vehicles. Currently, they are too expensive for the mass market. 

Following link to a YouTube video is an interview with Sandy Munro and his assessment that Tesla is 4-5 years ahead of legacy auto makers. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A__rMm18rXI

Following YouTube video expresses well the software advantage of Tesla which legacy auto makers will find difficult to bridge the gap. Philosophy of a computer on wheels vs an electric car. The differentiating difference could very well be which vehicles will have full self driving functionality or not. 

 

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